CEMS Fire

CEMS Fire Danger Indices

Description: Fire danger indices from the ECMWF, calculated using weather forecasts from historical simulations provided by ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis.

Organization: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)/Copernicus Emergency Management Service

Spatial resolution: ~0.8-km (1/100-deg)

Time Span: 1940-01-03 to Present (updated first week of each month)

Variables:

  • Fire Weather Index - a combination of Initial spread index and Build-up index, and is a numerical rating of the potential frontal fire intensity. In effect, it indicates fire intensity by combining the rate of fire spread with the amount of fuel being consumed. Fire weather index values are not upper bounded however a value of 50 is considered as extreme in many places. The Fire weather index is used for general public information about fire danger conditions.
  • Fire Danger Risk - a metric related to the chances of a fire starting, its rate of spread, its intensity, and its difficulty of suppression. It is open ended however a value of 50 and above is considered extreme in most vegetation.
  • Fire Daily Severity Rating - numeric rating of the difficulty of controlling fires. It is an exponential transformation of the Fire weather index and more accurately reflects the expected efforts required for fire suppression as it increases exponentially as the Fire weather index is above a certain value.
  • Burning Index - measures the difficulty of controlling a fire. It is derived from a combination of Spread component (how fast it will spread) and Energy release component (how much energy will be produced). In this way, it is related to flame length, which, in the Fire Behavior Prediction System, is based on rate of spread and heat per unit area. However, because of differences in the calculations for Burning index and flame length, they are not the same.
  • Energy Release Component - a number related to the available energy (British Thermal Unit) per unit area (square foot) within the flaming front at the head of a fire. Daily variations in Energy release component are due to changes in moisture content of the various fuels present, both live and dead. Since this number represents the potential "heat release" per unit area in the flaming zone, it can provide guidance to several important fire activities. It may also be considered a composite fuel moisture value as it reflects the contribution that all live and dead fuels have to potential fire intensity. The Energy release component is a cumulative or "build-up" type of index. As live fuels cure and dead fuels dry, the Energy release component values get higher thus providing a good reflection of drought conditions. The scale is open-ended or unlimited and, as with other National Forest Danger Rating System components, is relative.
  • Ignition Component- measures the probability a firebrand will require suppression action. Since it is expressed as a probability, it ranges on a scale of 0 to 100. An Ignition component of 100 means that every firebrand will cause a fire requiring action if it contacts a receptive fuel. Likewise an Ignition component of 0 would mean that no firebrand would cause a fire requiring suppression action under those conditions.
  • Spread Component -  a measure of the spead at which a headfire would spread. The spread component is numerically equal to the theoretical ideal rate of spread expressed in feet-per-minute however is considered as a dimensionless variable. The Spread component is expressed on an open-ended scale; thus it has no upper limit.

Website: CEMS Website

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Terms of Use:

  • Find license information here.

References:

  • Vitolo, C., Di Giuseppe, F., Barnard, C., Coughlan, R., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Libertá, G., & Krzeminski, B. (2020). ERA5-based global meteorological wildfire danger maps. Scientific data, 7(1), 1-11. 'Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information [Year]'

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